Peace For Our Time?

 

by Kerry Thomas

August 14, 2008

 

 

Recent events in the Asian country of Georgia (capital is Tbilisi, not Atlanta) remind us that we live in a world governed by the aggressive use of force. Despite the utopian wishes of many in this country, it takes a strong military and the willingness to use it to ensure peace.

 

Our history is replete with examples of leaders who put their faith in paper agreements with dishonest governments. Perhaps the most famous is the September 30, 1938 image of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain telling the British people “My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time...Go home and get a nice quiet sleep."

 

Two weeks later, on October 15, 1938, German forces invaded the Sudetenland, which was the portion of Czechoslovakia inhabited by over 3 million Sudeten Germans. On September 1, 1939, Germany invaded Poland. World War II followed.

 

Historically, Georgia was absorbed into the Russian Empire in the 19^th century. Georgia was independent for three years (1918-1921) following the Russian revolution. It was forcibly incorporated into the USSR until the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. Since then, Georgia has adopted a Western democratic form of governance, with free elections and a market economy.

 

Ethnic separation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is the reason Russia is claiming today to justify its invasion of Georgia, just as the Germans did when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1938.

 

It’s estimated that roughly 85,000 ethnic Russians live in these two Georgian provinces. Ethnic Russians make up less than 2% of Georgia’s population, yet Russian forces currently occupy more than a third of Georgia.

 

If we allow ethnic separation to be used as a justification for the Russian invasion of Georgia, should we also allow Russia to invade the United States, where there are approximately 950,000 ethnic Russians? Estimates are that about 160,000 Russians live in London, and over a million Russians live in Israel.

 

Will this Russian invasion escalate beyond the Georgian borders? Will Ukraine be the next former Soviet republic to face Russian invasion?

 

There are about 8 million ethnic Russians in Ukraine, 4.5 million in Kazakhstan, 1.2 million in Belarus, 700,000 in Latvia, 650,000 in Uzbekistan, and 600,000 in Kyrgyzstan. All told, there are approximately 25.3 million Russians living outside Russia. If we allow Russian forces to occupy Georgia, who will be next?

 

No one can accurately predict the future, but we can and should use history as a guide.

 

Meanwhile, Iran continues to pursue its nuclear ambitions. Iranian leader Ahmedinejad has said (In English) "This regime occupying Jerusalem [read that Israel] must vanish from the page of time." Israel won’t allow itself to vanish from the pages of time.

 

No matter what domestic problems we have, it’s usually international events that shape the actions of the American president.

 

Democrat Presidential candidate Barack Obama strongly condemned the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urged an immediate end to armed conflict. ”All sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia, and the United States, the United Nations Security Council, and the international community should fully support a peaceful resolution to this crisis."

 

Republican Presidential candidate John McCain said “Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory. What is most critical now is to avoid further confrontation between Russian and Georgian military forces. The consequences for Euro-Atlantic stability and security are grave.”

 

“The US should immediately convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to reverse course. The US should immediately work with the EU and the OSCE to put diplomatic pressure on Russia to reverse this perilous course it has chosen. We should immediately call a meeting of the North Atlantic Council to assess Georgia’s security and review measures NATO can take to contribute to stabilizing this very dangerous situation. Finally, the international community needs to establish a truly independent and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia.”

 

John Bolton, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations and currently a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, had a few observations on this situation:

 

“The most important step will take place right here in the United States. With a Presidential election on November 4, Americans have an opportunity to take our own national pulse, given the widely differing reactions to Russia’s blitzkrieg from Senator McCain and (at least initially) Senator Obama.”

 

“First reactions, before the campaigns’ pollsters and consultants get involved, are always the best indicators of a candidate’s real views. McCain at once grasped the larger, geostrategic significance of Russia’s attack, and the need for a strong response, whereas Obama at first sounded as timorous and tentative as the Bush Administration.”

 

“Ironically, Obama later moved closer to McCain’s more robust approach, followed only belatedly by Bush.”

 

“In any event, let us have a full general election debate over the implications of Russia’s march through Georgia. Even before this incident, McCain had suggested expelling Russia from the G8; others have proposed blocking Russia’s application to join the World Trade Organisation or imposing economic sanctions as long as Russian troops remain in Georgia.”

 

“Obama has assiduously avoided specifics in foreign policy – other than withdrawing speedily from Iraq – but that luxury should no longer be available to him. We need to know if Obama’s reprise of George McGovern’s 1972 campaign theme, “Come home, America”, is really what our voters want, or if we remain willing to persevere in difficult circumstances, as McCain has consistently advocated.”

 

“Querulous Europe should hope, for its own sake, that America makes the latter choice.”